M1 and M2 price scissors innovation high economic stabilization funds or deposit – Sohu Finance 泸州医学院研究生处

M1 and M2 "price scissors" innovation high economic stabilization funds or deposit? – Sohu finance     according to the latest financial statistics issued by the central bank, January M1 (narrow money) and M2 (broad money) growth rate difference, M1 and M0 (cash in circulation) growth rate difference, the highest value since 2011. According to the relevant interpretation of the central bank, this shows that the level of capital activation continues to improve, but combined with the economic indicators in January, the macro economy did not show obvious signs of stabilization. Related corporate stock movements, although due to bonuses and other reasons, non-financial corporate deposits transferred to resident deposits. However, the growth of corporate demand deposits is still fast, leading to high growth rate of M1 in January. This may be due to the continuous reduction of the matching loan of the special debt and the continued reduction of the company’s customer margin." China Merchants Securities Macro Analyst Yan Ling on the "daily economic news" reporter said. "Price scissors" or continue to increase after the central bank survey Secretary Sheng Songcheng in 12 at the end of last year than expected M1 and M2 growth has said that the rapid growth of money supply shows that the overall market liquidity ample, the steady growth of the national policy efforts to increase economic activity has increased. This trend continued in 2016, to 1 at the end of this year, M2 amounted to 141 trillion and 630 billion yuan, an increase of 14%, the growth rate than last month and last year high 0.7 and 3.2 percentage points; M1 amounted to 41 trillion and 270 billion yuan, an increase of 18.6%, the growth rate the previous month and the same period last year high 3.4 and 8.1 percentage points M0; the balance of 7 trillion and 250 billion yuan, an increase of 15.1%. In this regard, China Minsheng Bank chief researcher Wen Bin on the "daily economic news" reporter said that in January the financial data significantly exceeded market expectations, but also reflects the financial support for the real economy increased. M2 grew by 14% year on year, creating a new high of about 1 and a half years, mainly due to the huge increase of derivative deposits due to the over expected credit investment. Bank financial research center analysis pointed out that credit demand stimulated the steady growth policy gradually fall and banks generally tend to seasonal factors at the beginning of the beginning of a lot of running, loans increased significantly, M1 and M2 "scissors" to further expand the form. At the same time, in the first half of last year, M1 growth rate is lower, further pushing up the M1 growth rate in January. At present, the growth gap between M1 and M2 in February may be further expanded. The economy has not improved significantly in Kyushu securities global chief economist Deng Haiqing believes that the reason may be the high rate of capital activation is the enterprise to get a lot of money, but can not blindly invest or expand production, and not afraid of missing the regular investment opportunities, thus forming a special case of the funds deposited in the current deposit. With the government batch project landing, commodity bottom up, PPI negative convergence, enterprises will gradually convert funds into investment or production, which will become an important factor in the future economic stabilization and recovery. He explained that the increase in the level of funding has been going on for four or five months, but the economy has not improved significantly. M1与M2“倒剪刀差”创新高 经济企稳还是资金淤积?-搜狐财经     据央行发布的最新金融统计数据,1月M1(狭义货币)与M2(广义货币)增速差、M1与M0(流通中现金)增速差再创2011年以来的最高值。按照央行此前的相关解读,这表明资金活化水平继续提高,但结合1月各项经济运行指标来看,宏观经济并没有显现出明显的企稳迹象。 相关公司股票走势   “尽管由于发放奖金等原因,非金融企业存款向居民存款转移。但是,企业活期存款增长仍然较快,导致1月M1增速高企。这可能是由于专项债配套贷款放在活期以及公司客户保证金的继续减少所致。”招商证券宏观分析师闫玲对《每日经济新闻》记者表示。  “倒剪刀差”或继续加大  此前,央行调查统计司司长盛松成针对去年12月末超预期的M1与M2增速曾表示,货币供应量增长较快表明市场流动性总体宽裕,国家稳增长政策力度加大,经济活跃度有所提高。  这种势头延续到了2016年,到今年1月末,M2余额达141.63万亿元,同比增长14%,增速分别比上月末和去年同期高0.7个和3.2个百分点;M1余额达41.27万亿元,同比增长18.6%,增速分别比上月末和去年同期高3.4个和8.1个百分点;M0余额达7.25万亿元,同比增长15.1%。  对此,中国民生银行首席研究员温彬对《每日经济新闻》记者表示,1月份金融数据大幅超出市场预期,也反映出金融对实体经济支持力度加大。M2同比增长14%,创约1年半以来新高,主要是因信贷超预期投放导致派生存款大幅增加。  交行金融研究中心则分析指出,受前期稳增长政策逐渐落地的信贷需求刺激以及银行普遍倾向于年初大量投放的季节性因素影响,年初贷款大幅上升,M1与M2“倒剪刀差”形态进一步扩大。同时,去年上半年M1增速较低也进一步推高了1月的M1增速。目前来看,2月M1与M2的增速差可能进一步扩大。  经济尚未明显改善  九州证券全球首席经济学家邓海清认为,资金活化率高的可能原因是,企业获得了大量资金,但既不敢盲目投资或扩大生产,又不敢存为定期怕错失投资机会,于是形成了资金淤积在活期存款的特殊情况。随着政府批项目落地、大宗商品见底回升、PPI负值收敛,企业会逐步将资金转化为投资或生产,这将成为未来经济企稳回升的重要因素。  他解释说,从数据上看,此次资金活化水平提高已经持续了四五个月,但经济并未明显改善,这一时滞已经超过了历史上的一般水平,似乎资金趴在活期上是真的。但从逻辑上讲,企业获得资金是有成本的,其成本再低也必然高于活期存款,企业借钱后以活期存回银行是非理性的。而且,存为收益几乎为零的活期存款,而不是收益更高的定期存款,更让人难以理解。  值得注意的是,目前宏观经济仍未出现明确的企稳信号信号。2月15日,中国海关公布的1月份货物贸易统计数据显示,以美元计价,出口同比下降11.2%,进口同比下降18.8%,较去年12月外贸增速回暖后再度大幅回落。  招商银行资产管理部高级分析师刘东亮对《每日经济新闻》记者表示,1月信贷猛增是否代表了经济拐点的出现,还需要更多数据的佐证支持,但大规模信贷投下去后短期经济数据可能不会太难看。信贷高增长能否持续的关键还是要看实体经济的需求和政府刺激经济的力度能否持续,否则可能出现金融数据的大幅萎缩。  另据媒体报道,在1月中旬的央行关于春节前后流动性管理座谈会的讲话也谈到了上半月投放节奏过快、年初规模过高的现象存在问题,需要银行及时调整信贷投放节奏。相关的主题文章: